{"id":2261,"date":"2015-01-26T22:42:59","date_gmt":"2015-01-27T02:42:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/?p=2261"},"modified":"2015-01-26T22:42:59","modified_gmt":"2015-01-27T02:42:59","slug":"hgtv-reports-south-bend-home-prices-up-26-8-greatest-appreciation-in-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/uncategorized\/hgtv-reports-south-bend-home-prices-up-26-8-greatest-appreciation-in-the-us\/","title":{"rendered":"HGTV Reports South Bend Home Prices Up 26.8% &#8211; Greatest Appreciation in The US"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>HGTV is a major\u00a0influence on how popular culture thinks of real estate\u00a0and helps shape popular design trends with shows that include\u00a0<em>Love It Or List It<\/em>, <em>Property Brothers<\/em> and <em>House Hunters<\/em>. They&#8217;ve made my job easier by giving buyers a script to follow when looking at homes and bringing entertainment and enthusiasm to real estate sales. They now even publish a magazine. But they are not statisticians or investigative reporters.<\/p>\n<p>The HGTV magazine\u00a0recently reported that house price appreciation in South Bend is &#8220;the sharpest increase in the United States&#8221; at 26.8%.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HGTV-clip.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2263 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/HGTV-clip.jpg\" alt=\"HGTV clip\" width=\"455\" height=\"510\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s an impressive figure that just missed making a lot of marathoners smile and it is getting a lot of attention locally. \u00a0But it doesn&#8217;t fit with what I see looking at houses and property sales here everyday: If you bought a house here a year ago for $200k, \u00a0you&#8217;re probably not going to get $253,600 for it today unless there are some very special circumstances. So I had to look further into the figure.<\/p>\n<p><em>HGTV<\/em> cited the <em>National Association of Realtors (NAR)<\/em> as its source. When I couldn&#8217;t find a press release from <em>NAR<\/em>, I contacted them for\u00a0greater detail. The 26.8% rate quoted is the year-over-year increase in the median price of sales from the first fiscal quarter (Jan-March) of 2013 compared to the first quarter of 2014. The lag is likely due to the lead time between a magazine article being written and the publication hitting the bookstore.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/NAR-source-data.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-2265 size-medium\" src=\"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/NAR-source-data-300x78.jpg\" alt=\"NAR source data\" width=\"300\" height=\"78\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>That means the technical answer is that yes, that&#8217;s the calculated appreciation and <em>HGTV<\/em> is not wrong. But they&#8217;re not quite right either, the 26.8% figure requires the following explanatory notes:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>This data is from the census defined statistical area or Core Based Statistical Area- CBSA\u00a043780 &#8211; and not from the city limits of South Bend. It includes sales from South Bend, but also from Mishawka, Granger, Osceola, Lakeville, and parts of Michigan including Edwardsburg and Cassopolis.<\/li>\n<li>The data is old, ending more than nine months ago in March 2014.<\/li>\n<li>The data is sourced from the relevant MLS es. It&#8217;s probably the cleanest data set, but it does excludes many new construction and For Sale By Owner sales.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>When I recreate the investigation\u00a0with sales data for just South Bend, with data I manually pull from the same MLS, I \u00a0see that<\/p>\n<p>for Q1 2013, there are<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>366 sales<\/li>\n<li>median sales price of\u00a049k<\/li>\n<li>102 of the sales were for 25k or less.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>And for Q1 2014, There are<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>298 sales<\/li>\n<li>median sales price at\u00a070k<\/li>\n<li>65 of those sales were for 25k or less.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/South-Bend-Real-Estate-Sales-Q1-2013.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-2267\" src=\"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/South-Bend-Real-Estate-Sales-Q1-2013.jpg\" alt=\"South Bend Real Estate Sales Q1 2013\" width=\"300\" height=\"396\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/South-Bend-Real-Estate-Sales-Q1-2014.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignright wp-image-2268\" src=\"http:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/South-Bend-Real-Estate-Sales-Q1-2014.jpg\" alt=\"South Bend Real Estate Sales Q1 2014\" width=\"300\" height=\"389\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Simply, it means that if the data is for &#8220;South Bend&#8221; and not &#8220;South Bend and the nearby cities,&#8221; the bulk of the reason the prices went up was that were were a lot of low price sales in Q1 2013 and fewer\u00a0of them in Q1 2014. It wasn&#8217;t because the house at 123 Main Street went from $100,000 to $127,000. The &#8220;mix&#8221; of homes sold changed, more than the\u00a0values did.<\/p>\n<p>So, the data is &#8220;true&#8221; if misleading. But interestingly, it also underreports the appreciation rate for the city of South Bend for the time period it uses when calculated in the same manner, which is +42.9%.<\/p>\n<p>So\u00a0it boosts South Bend real estate in a confused manner, making it seem that &#8220;wow, homes are increasing in value&#8221; not the more accurate &#8220;wow there were a lot of low price sales and those are becoming a smaller part of the market.&#8221; Both are good news, but quite different. And South Bend and its nearby cities and partners\u00a0in the statistical area\u00a0have enough great stories to tell that they don&#8217;t need muddled if positive statistics. I&#8217;ll try to cover a few of them in coming posts, they include: progress towards new mixed use buildings in central South Bend and Mishawaka, renovation of at least one midrise building in South Bend, a quick buildout of The Triangle neighborhood south of Notre Dame, and a significant rise in higher-end new construction homes in two South Bend neighborhoods.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>HGTV is a major\u00a0influence on how popular culture thinks of real estate\u00a0and helps shape popular design trends with shows that include\u00a0Love It Or List It, Property Brothers and House Hunters. They&#8217;ve made my job easier by giving buyers a script to follow when looking at homes and bringing entertainment and enthusiasm to real estate sales. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2261","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2261","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/37"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2261"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2261\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2274,"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2261\/revisions\/2274"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.realst8.com\/staging\/9756\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}