With a few exceptions (notably for members of the military stationed overseas), you had to be in a binding contract by April 30th as one of the criteria to qualify for the heavily promoted income tax credit that is available to some home buyers.

Personally and based upon my own conversations with people whose workflow is determined by the number of real estate transactions they touch (other real estate agents, title company closers, property inspectors and mortgage brokers), the tax credit increased the number of sales. But since I can’t talk to everyone involved with every sale, I checked the statistics too…the graph below charts the number of properties listed for sale in the South Bend Area MLS that went under contract each day in 2009 and through May 17th , 2010.

Notably, the pending counts for the first five months of 2010 are significantly higher than the same figures for 2009. And it would be hard to argue that the spike from mid April through the end of the that month is due to anything other than buyers who wanted to qualify for the tax credit.

Government involvement in the real estate market is hardly over now that sales don’t qualify for a tax credit:

• payments on mortgage interest remain tax deductible for most homes,
• Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac still buy large numbers of mortgages freeing banks to make more loans,
• and the FHA’s low downpayment loans have become a major player in market, accounting for about one in three of the pending or closed sales this year in the local MLS.

But the tax credit is over as one government driver of new sales. In our area, it commonly takes four to six weeks to go from binding contract to closed sale. And a provision of the tax credit requires sales to close by June 30th. Watch for the “tax credit sales” to close in June, creating high sales numbers for the month. After June, it’s more difficult to forecast. Sales will likely dip like car sales did after “Cash for Clunkers” ended. But changes in the broader economy, or in FHA policy or in how a large bank handles foreclosures could tip the scales of supply and demand in unexpected directions. Comments are open if you’d like to share your prediction.

Turkey Trail is a mile and a half stretch of county road between Roosevelt and Miller Roads on the south side of South Bend. It has a mix of modest homes built decades ago, farmland, and expensive newer homes on large lots – the result of a St. Joseph County zoning rule which requires a minimum lot size of 20 acres for residential use on agricultural land.

It’s a manifestation of development trends of the last 50 years with ranch homes on small lots, estates with private ponds and gates, and cornfields all in a row.

Couple that with the fact it’s the only street in the area named after a Thanksgiving Day meal and it’s appropriate enough for a quick holiday article on our blog. But I have a greater, personal reason to profile Turkey Trail today. Seven years ago my stepbrother, Eric Henry, died in an auto accident on this road.

Eric was a senior in high school and shortly before the accident had made a commitment to “be more giving.” That intention, fostered by Eric’s family and friends has grown into “Eric’s Promise,” a seasonal donation drive for the St. Vincent DePaul Society. It collects clothing, food and cash donations for people in need each Spring.

If you live in abundance and are looking for a way to express your thanks this holiday season, why not make a donation to St. Vincent DePaul or another worthy cause now?

Writing about Eric makes me consciously thankful for my sisters, my brothers, and all the sibling-like people in my life. Angie, David, Jeannie, Brad, TJ, Eric, Kristine, Lisa, Dave, Alex, AJ, Melissa, Brian, Eric, Vicki, Joe, Linda, Terry, Todd, Mary Anne, Kim, Jeff, Misty, and Dan – I’m grateful you are a part of my life.

There are 2,683 residential properties listed for sale in the South Bend MLS today.

• 88% have been on the market for 30+ days
• 73% have been on the market for 60+ days
• 62% have been on the market for 90+ days
• 53% have been on the market for 120+ days
• 20% have been on the market for 365+ days
• 4% have been on the market for 730+ days
• 1% have been on the market for 1,000+ days

1 of every 2 homes for sale in the South Bend Area MLS has been for sale for more than 4 months.
1 in 5 houses for sale has been for sale for over a year.

Here are a four of the homes that have been on the market for more than 1,000 days:

51483 Megan (map / details) is in Shamrock Hills, one of the area’s most expensive neighborhoods and one of only two with a gate. It was first listed for sale in July 2006 at $849,900. It is now listed at $650,000.

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3214 York (map / details) is in Ridgedale. It was most recently listed November 2005 for $799,000 after selling at auction for $470,000 a few months prior. It is now listed for $545,000.

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2126 Willow Lake (map / details) is in Barrrington Estates, Mishawaka’s gated community. It hit the market in March 2005 for $599,000. It is now listed at $454,900.

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53130 Grassy Knolls (map / details) is a builder’s model home in Nature’s Gate. It was listed in March 2006 at $474,900 and now has a sticker price of $399,900.

Our wait continues for high resolution imagery from Google’s satellite, but yesterday Google launched Street View for South Bend, Mishawaka and Granger Indiana. It lets you see the street scene at whatever site you are mapping.  They are static, and apparently were taken sometime last summer.

Here’s a sample from downtown South Bend:

and one of my neighborhood, South Bend’s Hermitage Estates:

If you want to scout houses, buildings, or neighborhoods, it’s the fastest way, and you can take a virtual walk around the block seeing what the Realtors left out of their photos.

Tomorrow, the sales stats from October. Today, Happy Halloween.

North Douglas Condos‘ developer, Cleland Homes, is building garages. The foundations are in, and they are expected to be compete by this winter. There will be eight garages, owned by the association and rented for $115 / month. Two have been spoken for by residents of the first building.

There are three 2-bedroom units still for sale in the first building (of 16 units). The second unit is complete and has its certificate of occupancy. It still needs to be legally brought into the condo association, but should be ready for residents sometime in the next weeks. One of its 16 units is reserved, leaving 18 condos for sale at North Douglas now.

Since we’ve started tracking condos and townhomes in the Notre Dame / South Bend / Mishawaka area, there have been quite a few new developments announced. A few are complete, a few are scrapped and most are underway. Here’s my first attempt to track them. If I’ve left any off, please mention them in the comments and I’ll try to come up with a comprehensive list.

announced or proposed but never built

• Game Day – Proposed as the tallest building in South Bend. The site has since been earmarked for a standard hotel.
• Colfax Place – Holladay’s high priced downtown condos that never made it past the model stage though a sales banner still hangs from the building.
• Main Street Condos – The top few floors of the JMS building, it never got past an entry in the mls from what I can tell.
• Juniper Knolls – This townhome project at Juniper and Cleveland couldn’t get approval from the County Council

in progress

• Irish Crossings – These high end units are being built more rapidly than the others in the area and seem to be selling well with 4 closings to date this year.
• North Douglas condos – One building is complete, and about 3/4 sold. The builder reports the second building will be ready this summer.
• Keenan Court – The first closing took place recently, and the first building seems to be done.
• Stadium Village – scaled back to two buildings, but under construction
• Eddy Street Commons – Grants have been given for the earth moving in this slow moving project.
• Townes at Kamm Island – Mishawaka’s south of the river condos have a beautiful model unit.
• Riverwalk Townhomes – Masons are currently at work on these north of the river condos in Mishawaka.
• Stonebridge at Edison Lakes – These are in a tucked away location that many people won’t find, but  are following a franchised model that has been successful in other cities.

completed

• Wexford Place – successful 8-unit complex
• Waterford – I believe the renovations are complete in this condo-hotel at the site of the former Ramada on 933 in Roseland. The condo-hotel concept is not readily accepted in South Bend, but they have sold some units, and have recently listed others in the mls.

unclear status at this time

• Notre Dame Avenue Townhomes – I’m not certain the status of these, it currently seems to be an abandoned project.
• Legacy Village – proposed project on Ironwood, not wanted by the neighbors, but not officially rejected
• Stadium Club – The former College Park Apartments, a few of the units are apparently still available as condos, but watch for this to convert fully back to apartments at some point.

For more information about the Notre Dame / South Bend / Mishawaka condos, review the South Bend Area Blog’s articles tagged condo, visit the South Bend Condo Profiles, or hop over to Notre Dame Pads.

Granger, Indiana doesn’t get much discussion on the web’s real estate boards but it did get an interesting question recently on Trulia:

 

What is the average percent paid for homes sold in Covington shores, and fox chase – on the water?

This is obviously someone who is smart about real estate and is doing their research before they make any large financial decisions. But they are being drawn into a common trap – thinking of sales in relation to list price rather than to inherent value.

 

But, there are two flaws with that way of valuing homes. The first is that list prices are arbitrary – there is nothing to prevent someone with a $500,000 home from listing it for sale for $900,000. Likewise there is nothing to keep you from under pricing a home and asking $300,000 for that same $500,000 house. Using list price as a guide assumes the list price is founded on something solid, and that’s often not the case.

 

The second reason it’s dangerous to use percent of list price as a benchmark is that list prices change. Every time you see a “price reduced” advertisement that’s a change to the list price. And, because it’s easier to query, most statistics you’ll see for sale price as a percent of list price are the sale price relative to the list price at the time of sale. A bit of reflection will show you that of course the house will sell for near list price once the price has been reduced closer to an amount at which the house will sell.

 

If you still want to see the percent of list price paid for homes, compare it to the original price, and take it with a grain of salt.

 

If you’re buying, base your offer on fundamentals and comparable recent sales, not the asking price.

 

If you’re selling, realize that you won’t be able to game the system with an artificially high list price and expect to set that as the benchmark for negotiations. Buyers won’t even look at your house. Put your energy into making your home look as good as it can and getting it in front of as many people as you can for the best result.

 

Here’s the breakdown of sales this year in Covington Shores, on the water: 

 

 

Though still unpolished, realst8.com’s new mls search is live. It offers the ability to search for properties in the South Bend Area by address, mls #, price, features, zip code, or Google map, and is a major improvement over the “stock” mls searches that all Realtors can provide through the local association of Realtors. It has better photo displays than Realtor.com too.

Better, you never need to register and we won’t bother you with unwanted calls and e-mails. If all you want is to search on your own, we’re happy to make that possible. If you want prompt, professional assistance by someone who will vigorously represent your interests when buying or selling a property we’re here when you contact us.

I’m a fan of Google Maps and Google Earth. I like their programmer’s interface and innovations. I would like to see their Street View feature come to South Bend sooner rather than later.

But I like crisp updated imagery more than any company. I like maps that layer information for me and in which navigation is a joy. Unfortunately no online map does everything I need, but one map currently has better and more updated imagery for the South Bend Area than the rest – scan the images below and I bet you’ll agree with me.

These images are screen captures from the major online mapping programs. They are of the same location, now the site of North Douglas Condos completed building #1 and clubhouse. Most seem to use the same imagery, but one far surpasses the rest.

Though I use Google Maps for directions and everyday mapping, and macoggis for parcel searches, I’m now going to use Microsoft’s Bird’s Eye View for the most current satellite imagery of the area.

Google Maps:

Google Earth:

maccogis GIS:

Yahoo Maps:

Microsoft Live 2D map:

Microsoft Live 2D Bird’s Eye View:

Microsoft Live 3D: